N. Korea Nukes?

[Jolen]

Originally posted by Darion
There is no way you could have missed mention of North Korea's army of a MILLION MEN, as I mentioned it at least twice. We are talking a million active-duty, gets-up-every-morning-and-puts-boots-on individuals. Not reservists, not mobilization ability, not names on a roster that check in once a month so the bosses know they're still alive. If you think that any given moron could not take a million men and wage a HIGHLY DAMAGING conventional military campaign against ANYONE HE WANTED (provided he had the ability to deploy wherever he wanted, which NK does), you are being willfully ignorant. Recognize reality. Do even a tiny bit of cursory research.

I had done some research into the subject, thanks! What I found was that North Korea's 1 million man army was equipped poorly and trained mediocrely, with the exception of the +50k strong special insertion forces they possess. The number of planes North Korea possesses does not top 300, made up of mostly 60's-late 80's Soviet hand me downs and conversions. Their navy was in about the same shape, possessing submarines and patrol sized ships.

If the mighty North Korean army was such a threat, you could be sure we would have a significantly higher troop concentration in North Korea. However, we don't.

We're not talking about the Huns here. Or the Nazis. Or even the Soviets. We're talking about an army coming from a malnourished country with a pitiful airforce and navy, that gives them extremely limited deployment capability not to mention the small scale of the theater they are fighting in (i.e. going south to South Korea) makes it extremely difficult to put into play all of their men. We have fought a country who was better armed (As the technology gap was not as great as it is now) with a much better theater in terms of putting into play their incredibly large army (600,000 man army is what they claimed repeatedly). Have you guessed it yet? If not, we're talking about Iraq from the Desert Shield/Storm days. Armed with Soviet tanks, trucks, planes, weapons (like North Korea), the Iraqi army was wiped off the face of the earth by the Coalition Forces. It was such a crushing defeat that we were slowed down more by taking prisoners than by actual combat. Hell, there were a good many reports from the time that a good many of the units we captured hadn't even SEEN combat against ground troops before they surrendered.

If Kim actually thought he could do something with his forces, he would have a long time ago. I am boggled why we are hyping this guy up as much as we are. We did the same thing with Hussein and Iraq (Republican Guard? Mother of all Battles?). "I'm going to bomb New York City if you don't remove sanctions!" Bullshit. He couldn't even pack one their nuclear weapons (which have a history of fucking up) onto one of his missiles (Taepodong 1 and 2? Long history of fucking up and falling into the sea). "Sanctions are a declaration of war!" A war he cannot wage because honestly, if North Korea goes to war, they will be defeated and Kim will lose power. Kim doesn't want to lose power.

Kim is blustering. He is using this situation to his advantage to gain more voluntary support from his people and to show off to the world. No one has provided any credible evidence as to why we are acting like we take him seriously. In fact, the only evidence presented has been dismantled and dismissed when scrutinized. Two futures are possible at this point: 1) He will not do anything, continue blustering and eventually die, leaving a considerable power vacuum in the D.P.R.K. or 2) He will engage in military actions which will end with the D.P.R.K. being defeated and Kim losing power. As things stand, I can only see the first happening.

[Darion]

I had done some research into the subject, thanks! What I found was that North Korea's 1 million man army was equipped poorly and trained mediocrely, with the exception of the +50k strong special insertion forces they possess. The number of planes North Korea possesses does not top 300, made up of mostly 60's-late 80's Soviet hand me downs and conversions. Their navy was in about the same shape, possessing submarines and patrol sized ships.

Great! Have a source to cite? Because it sounds like you're just spinning your wheels. This is an exact copy of the methodology by which you marginalized the rampantly hostile attitudes (both in aims and behavior) of both Iran and North Korea. They're not a threat because...

• They don't mean what they say, they're just trying to impress their population;
• Ok, they might mean what they say, but they don't have the means to carry it out;
• Ok, they might have a nuke, but it's primitive! and can't reach New York;
• Ok, they also have an enormous conventional force, but they're poorly trained;
• Ok, they also have a standing navy large enough to transport a massive conventional ground force, but the ships are old
• Ok, they also have an air force and the support of China, who has the world's largest air force, but the NK planes are old!
• etc, etc

If the mighty North Korean army was such a threat, you could be sure we would have a significantly higher troop concentration in North Korea. However, we don't.

Last I checked, we had 30,000 troops on the other end of the DMZ in South Korea, mostly as an implied statement that any incursion or aggression into or against South Korea would be met with force by the United States.

He is using this situation to his advantage to gain more voluntary support from his people and to show off to the world.

So, you're saying he wants to be taken seriously by the world? Great. It's working, and now he's being weighed as a legitimate threat to world order because he threatens to torch assorted cities while simultaneously pursuing a nuclear program which is nearing or has already reached completion. He is not using this situation to his advantage: he is undermining himself regionally, especially with his main ally (China) and globally with the entire civilized world by threatening nuclear force.

[Darion]

I re-read your post, and I have no idea how I missed this bit the first time through:

(North Korea has...)extremely limited deployment capability not to mention the small scale of the theater they are fighting in (i.e. going south to South Korea) makes it extremely difficult to put into play all of their men.

Please tell me you are not going to start arguing literal military tactics and how best to maximize strength versus force size, area denial, etc etc etc in your already-poor estimation of the worth of the North Korean military. A million men could dominate a country the size of South Korea. We have less than 250,000 in Iraq. Do not go down this road.

[Jolen]

Originally posted by Darion
Great! Have a source to cite? Because it sounds like you're just spinning your wheels. This is an exact copy of the methodology by which you marginalized the rampantly hostile attitudes (both in aims and behavior) of both Iran and North Korea. They're not a threat because...

Sure, right here.

Ah. I confused the number of air craft with the number of helicopters they possessed. Aircraft stands at under two-thousand, mostly made up of 60's-late 80's vintage Soviet. Special insertion forces are up to 110k.

South Korea is FAR from defenseless. Almost 700 k men along with another 3.5 million in paramilitary reserves? Including the +29k U.S. men stationed there. All much better trained and fed than their North Korean counterparts. Malnourished, underfed, underequipped North Korea is not going to be barrelling over anyone anytime soon.

These are OUR estimates of their military strength, not numbers I pulled out of my ass. Tell me again how North Korea is a threat to the region, especially now that China has distanced itself from North Korea?

Originally posted by Darion
Please tell me you are not going to start arguing literal military tactics and how best to maximize strength versus force size, area denial, etc etc etc in your already-poor estimation of the worth of the North Korean military. A million men could dominate a country the size of South Korea. We have less than 250,000 in Iraq. Do not go down this road.

((MODERATOR NOTE: Deleted a large portion on individual interpretation of military tactics. FTFSI))

So far, the evidence does not point to North Korea being a credible threat. On the other hand, all that has been presented are what amount to talking points such as:

- North Korea has a nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver.
- Kim is a mad dictator.
- Kim has threatened to nuke cities.
- North Korea has a 1 million man army.
- Kim has threatened conventional war.

None of these points holds ANY water when scrutinized:

1)North Korea has partially-succeeded at detonating ONE nuclear weapon with a partially-successful missile program.
2) Real-life Kim != Team America Kim no matter how fucking hysterical it was.
3) See 1. He cannot do this.
4) North Korea's military is poorly equipped, poorly trained, underfed aimed at an area built up to prevent/slow down an attack from the North. Across the DMZ, North Korea faces almost 700 k soldiers + 3.5 million paramilitary, along with our boys. And this is WITHOUT adding to the mix any regional powers that will jump in on the side of South Korea.
5) See 4. He cannot do this.

North Korea is NOT a threat to world stability. The talking points DO NOT stand against the facts which clearly put Kim and the D.P.R.K. at a great disadvantage. In my opinion, North Korea is using its acquisition of a nuclear arsenal in attempt for a bid for at least a rotating seat in the U.N. Security Council, where they -may- be able to gain more influence on the world. North Korea is following the example set before it:

1) The five members of the permanent U.N. Security Council are also the only five countries allowed nuclear arsenals per the NPT.
2) Four out of the five are the world's top four weapons exporters when measured in arms value.

So, do we just give them a permanent seat? Not happening. There are far more 'deserving' countries in the running who haven't gotten it. And I doubt they'll be getting a temporary seat any time soon.

[Darion]

For the uninitated, FTFSI stands for "Fail(s)(ed)(ing) to follow simple instructions". I specifically asked you not to bring this discussion of military capability to a tactical level, as it is clear that your expertise in this area lies somewhere south of zero. Further, individual unit tactics have no bearing on this discussion of North Korea's nuclear capability. You have also demonstrated inability to recognize the simplest axiom of conventional land warfare: the win, 99 times out of 100, goes to the side with the ability to inflict more damage faster. This aspect of the military discussion is over.

Sure, right here.

Next time you are going to provide a link to Wikipedia, stop. Take the extra two minutes of time it would take and link directly to the source citation that Wikipedia is claiming.

Malnourished, underfed, underequipped North Korea is not going to be barrelling over anyone anytime soon.

Do you have some kind of information that the rest of the world does not; namely, that the NK forces are in disarray and barely holding the wheels on? This sounds conspicuously like personal belief being passed off as fact. The vast majority of NK's resources go to the military and/or military development. The civilians are starving. I am willing to bet that the military lives in extreme comfort by comparison.

- North Korea has a nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver.
- Kim is a mad dictator.
- Kim has threatened to nuke cities.
- North Korea has a 1 million man army.
- Kim has threatened conventional war.

...

1)North Korea has partially-succeeded at detonating ONE nuclear weapon with a partially-successful missile program.
2) Real-life Kim != Team America Kim no matter how fucking hysterical it was.
3) See 1. He cannot do this.
4) North Korea's military is poorly equipped, poorly trained, underfed aimed at an area built up to prevent/slow down an attack from the North. Across the DMZ, North Korea faces almost 700 k soldiers + 3.5 million paramilitary, along with our boys. And this is WITHOUT adding to the mix any regional powers that will jump in on the side of South Korea.
5) See 4. He cannot do this.

I'm going to set you up for success on this one. Here are the actual talking points:

- North Korea is developing a nuclear arsenal.
- Kim is, personally, irrational
- Kim has threatened to nuke cities.
- North Korea has a 1 million man army.

These points reinforce each other. Here is the other (real-life) half of the idiot list:

1) Evidence suggests North Korea has conducted a successful nuclear test.
2) The fact that you are equating people's individual beliefs on the willingness of Kim Jong-Il to do something monumentally stupid to a movie parody is ample evidence of your own inability to think clearly.
3) KJI has threatened to nuke cities. He CAN do this, provided he acquires all necessary physical means (a high-yield weapon and a method of delivery). You are confusing "can't" with "shouldn't", ie, "I can't (am physically incapable of the ability to) drive" versus "I shouldn't (I am capable of the ability to) drive (but it would be averse to my best interests)". There is ample evidence that KJI does not have a grasp of his own, or his nation's, best interests. It is not a stretch to forsee him acting contrary to them.
4) Your personal belief is that the NK army is underequipped, underfed, barely able to walk from here to the mess hall for their three grains of rice a week. Anything to support this?
5) KJI has not (yet) threatened a conventional war.

You are deliberately warping the valid points that have been brought up here, and the reasons behind their mention. You have been called on this several times, and you either ignore, misdirect, or argue semantics in lieu of a real defense of your willfull ignorance. I hereby label your performance in this thread UNSAT - and yourself as untrainable.